If the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ends up approving a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) anytime in the coming days or weeks, one expert is confident BTC prices will explode more than 6x to $185,000.
As of August 30, BTC is changing hands below $30,000 but remains firm.
Bitcoin To $185,000?
In a recent CNBC interview, Tom Lee, who regularly comments on Bitcoin prices, said a spot ETF will mop up all daily supply of the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency, creating an “imbalance” that will inevitably drive prices higher. Based on this, demand will significantly outstrip supply, driving prices to $185,000 or higher.
Bitcoin remains the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap despite the sharp contraction throughout the past 20 months.
At peaks, BTC surged to over $69,000 only for sentiment to shift in 2022, triggering a sell-off that saw prices declined more than half, bottoming up from below $16,000 in November 2022.
While prices have since recovered, surging over 50% from November 2022 lows to peaking at over $31,000 in late July 2023, the crypto and Bitcoin communities have their eyes on the SEC.
The stringent regulator has been adamant, dismissing previous applications for a complex ETF derivative directly tracking Bitcoin prices. While the SEC has approved a Bitcoin Futures ETF that tracks an index aggregating prices from multiple regulated exchanges, the nascent industry demands an spot BTC ETF.
SEC Likely To Approve Spot ETF?
Following August 29’s court ruling that supported Grayscale’s assertion that robust measures are in place for their Bitcoin spot ETF to be free from market manipulation, the community has been ecstatic. The ruling was a loss for the SEC, but the court didn’t mention or guide the regulator in approving a Bitcoin ETF.
Nonetheless, following the sharp expansion of Bitcoin prices from around $25,800 to as high as $28,000, there is a section of optimists who believe the SEC has little wiggling space and have no option but to greenlight a Bitcoin ETF in the coming weeks if not months.
On August 30, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, two of Bloomberg’s senior ETF analysts, increased their odds of the SEC approving a spot ETF in 2023 to 75% (up from 65%). If it doesn’t get approved this year, they estimate that the regulator will likely allow entities to create this product next year since their probability is 95%.
Their confidence stems from the fact that the “unanimity and decisiveness” of the recent court ruling in the SEC versus Grayscale case was “beyond expectations and leaves SEC with “very little wiggle room.” Moreover, in their assessment, the SEC has suffered a “PR” loss since the ruling was widely covered.
Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView